Factoring in the rate of population growth it estimates that we will reach this point within 10,000 years.īut the universal doomsday argument - which is a different model - assumes the universe is very large with many civilisations living in it, says Gerig. Given this figure, it estimates that there is a 95 per cent chance no more than 1.4 trillion humans will ever live. The original doomsday argument predicts humanity's prospects of survival based on how many humans have lived so far, estimated to be around 70 billion. Previous analyses had suggested our likelihood of surviving existential threats such as asteroid stikes and pandemics were close to zero, says lead author physicist Austin Gerig from the University of Oxford.īut Gerig and cosmologists Ken Olum and Alexander Vilenkin suggest we could improve our chances of surviving into the deep future if we make a concerted effort to tackle the risks that threaten our existence and undertake serious space exploration. The study, published on the pre-press website, revisits a theoretical concept known as the 'universal doomsday argument'. Complex life better than 1-in-100 chance, Science Online, įuture of humanity Human civilisation has a slim chance of surviving long enough to colonise other planets, but the odds are much better than some earlier estimates, a new analysis shows.Humans must find new planets to survive, Science Online,.
Researchers ask 'Do aliens use hairspray?', Science Online,.
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